The Compute Doctrine, in 20 Minutes

Why states now treat inference capacity as strategic depth — and what happens to the countries renting theirs from somebody else.

1. 0:00 · OkaforStart with the number that changed the conversation: eighteen percent, year on year, in sovereign compute spend.
2. 0:18 · TanakaAnd almost none of it is framed as industrial policy any more. It is framed as deterrence.
3. 0:38 · OkaforWhich imports a whole nuclear-era vocabulary — second strike, breakout capacity, hardened sites.
4. 1:01 · TanakaThe analogy breaks in one place: you cannot rent a warhead by the hour.
5. 1:19 · OkaforThat is the exposure. Roughly forty states run their national models on somebody else's silicon.
6. 1:41 · TanakaSo the real question of the decade is not who trains the best model. It is who can be switched off.